As ?bond geeks,? one of our favorite pastimes is to figure out what the Federal Reserve is likely to do next or what the last bit of economic data will lead the Fed to do. It?s a good exercise if you are a market timer, it?s a lot of fun and it gives one the sense of pride at being good in esoterica. However, for an investor who is in it for the long haul and who is looking to invest for some specific objective, it is a useless exercise at best and leads to very bad investment decisions at worst.
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