The Week Ahead: Will November Surprise the Bulls or Bears?

November 02, 2013   |   November 2013 Bond Updates
The stock market surprised the majority of analysts again in October as the S&P was up 4.4%, the Nasdaq 100 was up 3.8%, and the Russell 2000 gained 2.5%. The Dow Industrials did a bit better than the small caps, for a change, as it was up 2.7% but the Dow Transports led the pack, up close to 6%. Last summer, several analysts warned investors about the poor historical record for stock prices in September as in the past 60 years, the S&P was down on average 0.8%. The technical picture in early September had improved as many stocks had already reached good support. At the end of September, many were again concerned about the potential for an “October crash” and the government shutdown caused some to sell in a panic. The dramatic rally from the October lows reinforces that it is better to invest or trade based on hard data not emotion. So how do stocks normally do in November? Since 1952, the S&P has averaged a gain of 1.40% as it was up 41 years and down just 20. Going back just 20 years, there is not much difference as the S&P was higher in 14 years and lower in seven with an average gain of 1.34%. So what do I think will happen in November 2013?

View more at: http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2013/11/01/the-week-ahead-will-november-surprise-the-bulls-or-bears/
 
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