Hear ye, hear ye! Emerging market assets have recovered! The MSCI EM Index, a free float weighted equity index of emerging markets equities is almost unchanged year to date. Similarly, EM bonds have recovered with the iShares Emerging Market Bond ETF up more than 3.50% year to date. Is this rebound in EM assets a head fake to be faded or are EM assets ready for another move higher? Unfortunately, the answer is convoluted and doesn’t propose a handy summation. A condensed version is that in the very short term, EM assets may continue to rise, but in the medium term there are too many risks for a sustained rally. In the very long term however, certain distinguished EM assets may gain in value and then some.
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