Economic expansions in the US generally end after the Fed takes a step or two too many on the tightening side. They were moving in this direction in 2014-15 through its forward guidance (which matters more to real growth than the spot Federal funds rate, especially when the funds rate is anchored at zero). Upon seeing a rapidly slowing economy and tightening financial conditions early this year, they gave a nod and a wink to the markets, thereby giving "permission" for the curve to flatten which, in turn, allowed equity markets to recover and the dollar to weaken.
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