Where art thou volatility? Not here, nor there, but soon to revive, me thinks. Volatility in risk markets is simply the measurement of variation in prices which is often calculated over certain time periods and against the idea of a normal distribution. The most important markers are historical (statistical) volatility and implied volatility. Historical volatility is a retrospective measurement of actual pricing variations whereas implied volatility is the theoretical price of an asset taking into account actual prices, historical volatility, a time component and the risk free rate within a pricing model such as the Black-Scholes model. Both historical and implied volatility have recently declined to cycle lows in many asset classes. The consensus call is for continued calm waters and a potential further decrease in volatility. The consensus call for tame volatility may be underestimating three potential drivers to higher volatility this year: rising inflation and Federal Reserve policy, a taper tantrum and geopolitical unknowns.
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